US rates and economy
Because US equities make up roughly 70 % of the MSCI World, American monetary policy effectively drives the return of any globally diversified ETF portfolio. The five series here are the figures the Fed itself watches: policy rate, long-term market rate, inflation, housing finance and the labour market.
As of 14 September 2026 · series since 1999-01-01 (10119 observations) · change vs previous +0.00.
History by year
| Year | US federal funds rate (effective) | US 10-year Treasury yield | US inflation rate (CPI, year on year) | US 30-year fixed mortgage rate | US unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.63 | 4.97 | 3.35 | 6.76 | 4.10 |
| 2025 | 3.64 | 4.18 | 2.65 | 6.15 | 4.40 |
| 2024 | 4.33 | 4.58 | 2.87 | 6.85 | 4.10 |
| 2023 | 5.33 | 3.88 | 3.32 | 6.61 | 3.80 |
| 2022 | 4.33 | 3.88 | 6.40 | 6.42 | 3.50 |
| 2021 | 0.07 | 1.52 | 7.17 | 3.11 | 3.90 |
| 2020 | 0.09 | 0.93 | 1.32 | 2.67 | 6.70 |
| 2019 | 1.55 | 1.92 | 2.32 | 3.74 | 3.60 |
| 2018 | 2.40 | 2.69 | 2.00 | 4.55 | 3.90 |
| 2017 | 1.33 | 2.40 | 2.13 | 3.99 | 4.10 |
| 2016 | 0.55 | 2.45 | 2.05 | 4.32 | 4.70 |
| 2015 | 0.20 | 2.27 | 0.64 | 4.01 | 5.00 |
| 2014 | 0.06 | 2.17 | 0.65 | 3.87 | 5.60 |
| 2013 | 0.07 | 3.04 | 1.51 | 4.48 | 6.70 |
| 2012 | 0.09 | 1.78 | 1.76 | 3.35 | 7.90 |
| 2011 | 0.04 | 1.89 | 3.06 | 3.95 | 8.50 |
| 2010 | 0.13 | 3.30 | 1.44 | 4.86 | 9.30 |
| 2009 | 0.05 | 3.85 | 2.81 | 5.14 | 9.90 |
| 2008 | 0.14 | 2.25 | -0.02 | 5.10 | 7.30 |
| 2007 | 3.06 | 4.04 | 4.11 | 6.17 | 5.00 |
| 2006 | 5.17 | 4.71 | 2.52 | 6.18 | 4.40 |
| 2005 | 4.09 | 4.39 | 3.34 | 6.22 | 4.90 |
| 2004 | 1.97 | 4.24 | 3.34 | 5.81 | 5.40 |
| 2003 | 0.94 | 4.27 | 2.04 | 5.85 | 5.70 |
| 2002 | 1.16 | 3.83 | 2.48 | 5.93 | 6.00 |
Relationship with equity markets
Correlation of changes, not of levels. Two series that both trend for years correlate almost perfectly in levels without any relationship following from it. Values near 0 mean no discernible co-movement.
| Series | Strongest relationships |
|---|---|
| US federal funds rate (effective) | Nikkei 225 +0.00 n=4234 Based on daily changes |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | MSCI Europe -0.25 n=525 · DAX -0.22 n=541 · MSCI EMU -0.22 n=525 Based on daily changes |
| US inflation rate (CPI, year on year) | Nikkei 225 -0.05 n=198 Based on monthly changes |
| US 30-year fixed mortgage rate | Nikkei 225 +0.02 n=200 Based on monthly changes |
| US unemployment rate | Nikkei 225 +0.05 n=198 Based on monthly changes |
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