US Rates and Economy

Because US equities make up roughly 72% of the MSCI World, American monetary policy effectively drives the return of any globally diversified ETF portfolio. The five series here are the figures the Fed itself watches: policy rate, long-term market rate, inflation, housing finance and the labor market.

US federal funds rate (effective) 3.88%

US 10-year Treasury yield 4.98%

US inflation rate (CPI, year on year) 3.74%

US 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.24%

US unemployment rate 4.20%

As of October 29, 2026 · series since Jan 1, 1999 (10164 observations) · change vs previous +0.00.

All-time high7.03%

All-time low0.04%

Data startsJan 1, 1999

Frequencydaily

Data note 1

Next Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve sets the US policy rate at meetings of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its next meeting ends on Wednesday, December 9, 2026. The Fed publishes the decision that day at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

Later decision days on the Fed calendar:

2027: January 27, March 17, April 28, June 9, July 28, September 15, October 27 and December 8

The committee holds eight scheduled meetings a year. With the March, June, September and December decisions, the Fed also releases its economic projections. Each date stays tentative until the committee confirms it at the meeting before.

Source: FOMC meeting calendar, Federal Reserve Board, checked on October 17, 2026.

History by Year

Year-end values
Year	US federal funds rate (effective)	US 10-year Treasury yield	US inflation rate (CPI, year on year)	US 30-year fixed mortgage rate	US unemployment rate
2026	3.88	4.98	3.74	7.24	4.20
2025	3.64	4.18	2.68	6.15	4.40
2024	4.33	4.58	2.89	6.85	4.10
2023	5.33	3.88	3.35	6.61	3.80
2022	4.33	3.88	6.45	6.42	3.50
2021	0.07	1.52	7.04	3.11	3.90
2020	0.09	0.93	1.36	2.67	6.70
2019	1.55	1.92	2.29	3.74	3.60
2018	2.40	2.69	1.91	4.55	3.90
2017	1.33	2.40	2.11	3.99	4.10
2016	0.55	2.45	2.07	4.32	4.70
2015	0.20	2.27	0.73	4.01	5.00
2014	0.06	2.17	0.76	3.87	5.60
2013	0.07	3.04	1.50	4.48	6.70
2012	0.09	1.78	1.74	3.35	7.90
2011	0.04	1.89	2.96	3.95	8.50
2010	0.13	3.30	1.50	4.86	9.30
2009	0.05	3.85	2.72	5.14	9.90
2008	0.14	2.25	0.09	5.10	7.30
2007	3.06	4.04	4.08	6.17	5.00
2006	5.17	4.71	2.54	6.18	4.40
2005	4.09	4.39	3.42	6.22	4.90
2004	1.97	4.24	3.26	5.81	5.40
2003	0.94	4.27	1.88	5.85	5.70
2002	1.16	3.83	2.38	5.93	6.00

Relationship With Equity Markets

Correlation of changes, not of levels. Two series that both trend for years correlate almost perfectly in levels without any relationship following from it. Values near 0 mean no discernible co-movement.

Correlations
Series	Strongest relationships
US federal funds rate (effective)	Nikkei 225 +0.00 n=4267 Based on daily changes
US 10-year Treasury yield	MSCI Europe -0.25 n=557 · MSCI World ex USA -0.23 n=557 · DAX -0.22 n=573 Based on daily changes
US inflation rate (CPI, year on year)	Nikkei 225 -0.05 n=199 · Bitcoin +0.00 n=108 Based on monthly changes
US 30-year fixed mortgage rate	Bitcoin -0.10 n=110 · Nikkei 225 +0.02 n=201 Based on monthly changes
US unemployment rate	Bitcoin +0.11 n=108 · Nikkei 225 +0.05 n=199 Based on monthly changes

Real Interest Rate in the US

January 2015September 2026

Subtracting the inflation rate from the policy rate leaves the real interest rate: what a deposit earning the policy rate still yields after price increases. In September 2026 the effective federal funds rate stood at 3.88% and the US inflation rate (CPI) at 3.74%, putting the real rate at 0.14%. Since January 2015 it was negative in 85 of 140 months. It hit its low of -8.21% in March 2022 and its high of 2.80% in August 2024.

Data note 2

Matching Calculators

These tools work with exactly these figures:

More Rate and Economy Series

ECB Policy Rate Inflation in Germany and the Euro Area German Mortgage Rates German Savings Rates Government Bond Yields Labor Market: Germany and the US