Classic Cars as an Investment: Real Hammer Prices

Classic cars as an investment: real hammer prices for Porsche, Ferrari, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Lamborghini, compared with stocks, Bitcoin and gold.

Price Trends Across All Models

Hammer prices for all 11 models from the make sections below in one chart, each line indexed to 100 as of Jul 11, 2024, on a logarithmic scale. Use the boxes to add the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold.

Compare with

Ferrari F355 Spider +86.0% Lamborghini Diablo +86.0% Porsche 911 Turbo (996) +80.0% Porsche 911 Turbo (930) +69.0% Porsche 911 Turbo (997) +45.0% Porsche 911 Turbo (964) +44.0% Ferrari 328 GTB/GTS +38.0% Porsche 911 Turbo (993) +33.0% Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG +11.0% BMW Z8 -2.0% Ferrari SF90 -36.0% S&P 500 +22.0% MSCI World +35.0% Bitcoin +31.0% Gold +54.0%

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Nov 9, 2026. Each model shows the median hammer price per period: a month, quarter or year, depending on the number of sales. Where a model has no newer value, its last value carries through to the end of the period. Prices are hammer prices without the buyer's fee; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. Comparison series are dashed.

Porsche 911 Turbo vs. the Markets

Actual auction prices by generation compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Oct 31, 2026. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices without the buyer's fee; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All generations in detail

Data note 1

Ferrari vs. the Markets

Actual auction prices by model compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Nov 3, 2026. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices without the buyer's fee; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All models in detail

Data note 1

Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG vs. the Markets

Actual auction prices for coupe and roadster compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Nov 9, 2026. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices without the buyer's fee; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All sales in detail

Data note 1

BMW Z8 vs. the Markets

Actual auction prices for the roadster compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Nov 6, 2026. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices without the buyer's fee; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All sales in detail

Data note 1

Lamborghini Diablo vs. the Markets

Actual auction prices across all regular versions compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Oct 26, 2026. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices without the buyer's fee; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All sales in detail

Data note 1

Why Cars Are Measured Through Hammer Prices

With classic cars, asking prices and final prices are especially far apart. Listings run for months, price ideas get negotiated down, and what was actually paid rarely becomes public. Auctions are the exception: the hammer price is public, dated and documented.

These pages cover selected models from Porsche, Ferrari, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Lamborghini, each one separately. That split is the key point. A median across all “911 Turbo” cars or all Ferrari 365s would be a number without an object, because the generations and versions are worlds apart. Within one model the cars are technically comparable, so the series really measures the same thing over time.

Only complete cars of the model count. Parts, wheels, literature and scale models sold alongside the cars are left out, and so are conversions, re-creations, tuned cars and project cars. Special editions such as the Black Series or the Turbo S are markets of their own and stay out as well. Some models have only a few sales so far, in some cases a single one. Their sales are listed one by one, and no return is calculated.

What the Comparison Does

The series run through the same math as an index and can be placed next to the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. That turns a common claim into something checkable: whether one generation kept up with the capital markets over a given period, or did not. The answer differs by generation and by period, which is why it appears as a chart and not as a sentence.

What the Numbers Do Not Say

No two cars are the same. Mileage, original paint, matching numbers, history, accident record and years spent standing still can move the price far beyond what a median can show. Two hammer prices for the same generation in the same month can be far apart without either of them being wrong.

The prices are hammer prices, meaning the winning bid. The buyer’s fee is added on top and is not part of the series.

A car also costs money every year: storage, insurance, maintenance, damage from standing, taxes and, once it is driven, wear. None of this appears in a price series, and over the years it changes the result considerably. Selling takes weeks or months, and a car pays no income while it is owned.

The series show prices paid in the past. They are not a valuation of a specific car and say nothing about future prices.

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