Classic cars as an investment: real hammer prices

Classic cars as an investment: real hammer prices per generation, returns and a comparison against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold.

Why vehicles are measured through hammer prices

With classic cars, asking prices and closing prices diverge especially far. Listings stand for months, expectations get negotiated down, and what finally changed hands is rarely known. Auctions are the exception: the hammer price is public, dated and documented.

The generations of the Porsche 911 Turbo are covered, each on its own. That cut is the decisive one — a median across “911 Turbo” would be a number without an object, because the generations are worlds apart. Within one generation the cars are technically comparable, and the series actually measures the development of the same thing.

What the comparison does

The series run through the same maths as indices and can be placed against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. That makes testable what otherwise stays an assertion: whether a generation’s value development over a given period keeps up with capital markets or not. The answer differs by generation and period — which is precisely why it appears as a chart rather than a sentence.

What the numbers do not say

No two cars are alike. Mileage, original paint, matching numbers, history, accident record and time standing still move the price by multiples of what a median can represent. Two hammer prices for the same generation in the same month can sit far apart without either being wrong.

On top of that, a car costs money to keep. Storage, insurance, maintenance, damage from standing, taxes, and wear once it moves — items that appear in no price series and change the balance considerably over years. Selling takes weeks to months. There is no income while holding.

The series show prices paid in the past. They are not a valuation of any particular vehicle and say nothing about future prices.

Porsche 911 Turbo vs. the markets

Real hammer prices per generation against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All lines indexed to 100 as of 2024-07-11, logarithmic scale.

Period 2024-07-11 to 2025-12-01. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices including the buyer's premium; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All generations in detail

Data note 1