Watches as an Investment: Real Hammer Prices

Watches as an asset: what real auction results say about prices and returns, so far for selected Rolex references, compared with stocks, Bitcoin and gold.

Why Watches Are Measured With Auction Data

The watch market has three very different prices for the same model. They are the list price of the manufacturer, the asking price of a dealer and the amount an auction actually reached. Only the last one is a real price: two parties, one moment, one amount. The series here are built from nothing else.

Hammer prices are paid in different currencies, depending on where the auction takes place. They are converted into a single currency at the exchange rate of the auction day, not at today’s rate. Otherwise the series of a watch would also contain the moves of the currency market.

Why a Few References Instead of Many Models

These pages cover selected Rolex references, not the market as a whole. The reason is the same as with cards: a series needs repeated sales of the same object, or it measures nothing. If a reference number comes up for auction regularly over the years, a price history can be built. For a one-off piece it cannot. There is a price, but no history.

Sales are assigned by the reference number given in the lot details, not by the model name. That is stricter than it sounds: a name like “Submariner” covers decades and many versions with very different prices, while a reference number stands for one specific case with one specific set of features.

What the Comparison Shows

The series look like price histories, so they can be set against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. The comparison uses the same period and the same return formula. That is the purpose of these pages. They do not claim that a watch is an investment. They prepare the numbers so the question can be checked.

What the Numbers Do Not Say

Auction results are only a selection. By far the largest part of the watch trade happens between dealers and private buyers and never appears in an auction list. Pieces sent to auction tend to be the rarer and better preserved ones. Condition, original parts, service history and whether box and papers are included move the price a lot. None of that shows up in a median.

The prices include the buyer’s premium. The seller receives less: the hammer price minus commission. Then there are insurance, storage and servicing, which for a mechanical watch is a regular expense, not a one-time one. A watch pays no income while it is owned. And the period matters: if the most recent sale is long past, the series describes an older market, not today’s.

Rolex vs. the Markets

Actual auction prices for selected Rolex references compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Jun 30, 2025. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices including the buyer's premium; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All references in detail

Data note 1

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