Assets: Collectibles With Real Auction Prices

Pokémon cards graded PSA 10, Rolex watches, classic cars and housing: real prices and returns compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold.

What These Pages Show

Real assets are usually sold with numbers that nobody can check: estimates, indices whose method is never disclosed, asking prices. These pages work differently. They are based on real sales with a date and a price. For cards, watches and cars these are completed auctions with a hammer price. For residential property they are the official price indices of the national statistics offices.

Each single sale becomes part of a median for its period, so the result has the same shape as a price history. From there it runs through the same math as any index: the same return formula, the same charts, the same correlation. That is how a single card, a watch reference or a car generation can be compared directly with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold, over the same period and with the same method.

This is what is usually missing. The question of how a collectible performed against a global equity index normally leads to two numbers from two sources. They are based on two methods and two time frames. Here it is one calculation.

How Items Are Selected

An item is included when the same kind of object sells again and again. That leaves out a lot of expensive things, because a unique piece has a price but no track record. This is why only PSA 10 counts for cards, single reference numbers for watches and single generations for cars. Only a narrow definition makes two sales comparable.

What Applies to Every Series

Every series shows how many sales it is based on and which period it covers. Both matter. With few sales, one unusual lot can move the median. If the latest sale is years old, the series describes an older market rather than today’s.

What a price contains differs by class. For trading cards and watches the buyer’s premium is included. For cars it is not: the figure is the hammer price without the buyer’s fee. No series includes seller’s commission, insurance, storage, upkeep, grading fees or the time it takes to sell. None of these assets pay income while they are held: no interest, no dividends. The entire return sits in the price.

All figures are produced automatically and describe the past. They are not investment advice.

The Four Asset Classes

PSA 10 Pokémon Trading Cards vs. the Markets

Real auction prices of PSA 10 cards compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Sep 28, 2026. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices including the buyer's premium; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All cards in detail

Data note 1

Classic Cars vs. the Markets

Actual auction prices for the most-traded model of each make compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Oct 26, 2026. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices without the buyer's fee; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All makes in detail

Data note 1

Rolex vs. the Markets

Actual auction prices for selected Rolex references compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Jun 30, 2025. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices including the buyer's premium; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All references in detail

Data note 1

Real Estate vs. the Markets

Official residential property price indices compared with the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All series are indexed to 100 as of July 11, 2024, and shown on a logarithmic scale.

Period Jul 11, 2024 to Jun 30, 2026. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. The series are official price indices, not individual sales; purchase costs, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All markets in detail

Data note 1

How Real Assets and Markets Move Together

Correlation matrix
SeriesTrading cardsClassic cars (Porsche)Residential propertyS&P 500 (future)Nasdaq 100 (future)BitcoinGold
Trading cards matched-model index+1.00 (19)+0.45 (19)+0.06 (18)-0.20 (19)-0.19 (19)-0.24 (19)-0.14 (15)
Classic cars (Porsche) quarterly median+0.45 (19)+1.00 (39)-0.04 (38)-0.10 (38)-0.15 (38)-0.15 (37)+0.04 (15)
Residential property mean of official indices+0.06 (18)-0.04 (38)+1.00 (158)-0.04 (37)-0.08 (37)+0.09 (36)-0.11 (14)
S&P 500 (future) quarter close-0.20 (19)-0.10 (38)-0.04 (37)+1.00 (38)+0.91 (38)+0.48 (37)-0.17 (15)
Nasdaq 100 (future) quarter close-0.19 (19)-0.15 (38)-0.08 (37)+0.91 (38)+1.00 (38)+0.45 (37)-0.32 (15)
Bitcoin quarter close-0.24 (19)-0.15 (37)+0.09 (36)+0.48 (37)+0.45 (37)+1.00 (37)+0.13 (15)
Gold quarter close-0.14 (15)+0.04 (15)-0.11 (14)-0.17 (15)-0.32 (15)+0.13 (15)+1.00 (15)

Data note 2

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