Assets: collectibles with real auction prices

Pokémon cards graded PSA 10 and Porsche 911 Turbo generations: real sale prices, returns and a comparison against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold.

What these pages show

Real assets are usually sold with numbers that nobody can check: estimates, indices whose method is never disclosed, asking prices. These pages work differently. They are based on real sales with a date and a price. For cards, watches and cars these are completed auctions with a hammer price. For residential property they are the official price indices of the national statistics offices.

Each single sale becomes part of a median for its period, so the result has the same shape as a price history. From there it runs through the same math as any index: the same return formula, the same charts, the same correlation. That is how a single card, a watch reference or a car generation can be compared directly with the S&P 500 , MSCI World , Bitcoin and gold , over the same period and with the same method.

This is what is usually missing. The question of how a collectible performed against a global equity index normally leads to two numbers from two sources, based on two methods and two time frames. Here it is one calculation.

How items are selected

An item is included when the same kind of object sells again and again. That leaves out a lot of expensive things, because a unique piece has a price but no track record. This is why only PSA 10 counts for cards, single reference numbers for watches and single generations for cars. Only a narrow definition makes two sales comparable.

What applies to every series

Every series shows how many sales it is based on and which period it covers. Both matter: with few sales, one unusual lot can move the median, and if the latest sale is years old, the series describes an older market rather than today’s.

The prices exclude buyer’s premium and seller’s commission, insurance, storage, upkeep, grading fees and the time it takes to sell. None of these assets pay income while they are held: no interest, no dividends. The entire return sits in the price.

All figures are produced automatically and describe the past. They are not investment advice.

PSA 10 Pokémon Trading cards vs. the markets

Real auction prices of PSA 10 cards against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All lines indexed to 100 as of 2024-07-11, logarithmic scale.

Period 2024-07-11 to 2026-08-31. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices including the buyer's premium; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All cards in detail

Data note 1

Porsche 911 Turbo vs. the markets

Real hammer prices per generation against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All lines indexed to 100 as of 2024-07-11, logarithmic scale.

Period 2024-07-11 to 2026-08-11. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices including the buyer's premium; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All generations in detail

Data note 1

Rolex vs. the markets

Real hammer prices for selected references against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All lines indexed to 100 as of 2024-07-11, logarithmic scale.

Period 2024-07-11 to 2025-06-30. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices including the buyer's premium; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All references in detail

Data note 1

Real estate vs. the markets

Official residential property price indices against the S&P 500, MSCI World, Bitcoin and gold. All lines indexed to 100 as of 2024-07-11, logarithmic scale.

Period 2024-07-11 to 2026-03-31. Positions are picked by the number of recorded sales, not by return. Prices are hammer prices including the buyer's premium; seller's commission, taxes and holding costs are not deducted. All markets in detail

Data note 1

How real assets and markets move together

Correlation of quarterly changes. +1 means moving together, 0 no discernible relationship, −1 opposed. In brackets, the number of shared quarters.

Correlation matrix
SeriesTrading cardsResidential propertyS&P 500 (future)Nasdaq 100 (future)Gold
Trading cards matched-model index+1.00 (18)+0.13 (17)-0.14 (18)-0.06 (18)+0.03 (14)
Residential property mean of official indices+0.13 (17)+1.00 (157)+0.18 (36)+0.28 (36)-0.71 (13)
S&P 500 (future) quarter close-0.14 (18)+0.18 (36)+1.00 (37)+0.92 (37)-0.29 (14)
Nasdaq 100 (future) quarter close-0.06 (18)+0.28 (36)+0.92 (37)+1.00 (37)-0.54 (14)
Gold quarter close+0.03 (14)-0.71 (13)-0.29 (14)-0.54 (14)+1.00 (14)

Sanity check: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 must sit well above +0.8 — two equity indices move almost alike. If they do not, the calculation is wrong. Not in the matrix: Watches — too few quarters with enough hammer prices for a series of their own. Also not shown: Classic cars (reliability 0.42). For that class the quarterly median consists mostly of which pieces happened to be offered, not of the market. A correlation from it would be pulled systematically towards zero and would read as “no relationship” when it is merely not measurable. Relationships are not causes, and a value near zero does not mean independence, only no linear co-movement over the period measured.

Data note 2

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