{"format":"alysly-page/1","url":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/us-rates/","json":"https://alysly.com/json/interest-rates/us-rates/index.json","lang":"en-US","title":"Next Fed Meeting, US Policy Rate, Inflation and Jobs","description":"Date of the next Fed meeting, plus the fed funds rate, 10-year Treasury yield, US inflation, mortgage rates and unemployment over time.","modified":"2026-10-29T00:00:00Z","alternates":[{"lang":"de-DE","url":"https://alysly.com/de/zinsen/usa/","json":"https://alysly.com/json/de/zinsen/usa/index.json"}],"about":"Machine-readable version of the page at url. It contains the text, tables and key figures published there, but not the interactive charts and tools.","breadcrumb":[{"name":"Rates & inflation","url":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/"},{"name":"US Rates and Economy","url":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/us-rates/"}],"content":[{"type":"heading","level":1,"text":"US Rates and Economy"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Because US equities make up roughly 72% of the MSCI World, American monetary policy effectively drives the return of any globally diversified ETF portfolio. The five series here are the figures the Fed itself watches: policy rate, long-term market rate, inflation, housing finance and the labor market."},{"type":"facts","items":[{"label":"US federal funds rate (effective)","value":"3.88%"},{"label":"US 10-year Treasury yield","value":"4.98%"},{"label":"US inflation rate (CPI, year on year)","value":"3.74%"},{"label":"US 30-year fixed mortgage rate","value":"7.24%"},{"label":"US unemployment rate","value":"4.20%"}]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"As of October 29, 2026 · series since Jan 1, 1999 (10164 observations) · change vs previous +0.00."},{"type":"facts","items":[{"label":"All-time high","value":"7.03%"},{"label":"All-time low","value":"0.04%"},{"label":"Data starts","value":"Jan 1, 1999"},{"label":"Frequency","value":"daily"}]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Data note 1","href":"#dn-1"},{"type":"heading","level":2,"text":"Next Fed Meeting"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The Federal Reserve sets the US policy rate at meetings of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its next meeting ends on Wednesday, December 9, 2026. The Fed publishes the decision that day at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Later decision days on the Fed calendar:"},{"type":"list","ordered":false,"items":["2027: January 27, March 17, April 28, June 9, July 28, September 15, October 27 and December 8"]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"The committee holds eight scheduled meetings a year. With the March, June, September and December decisions, the Fed also releases its economic projections. Each date stays tentative until the committee confirms it at the meeting before."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Source: FOMC meeting calendar, Federal Reserve Board, checked on October 17, 2026.","links":[{"text":"FOMC meeting calendar","href":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"}]},{"type":"heading","level":2,"text":"History by Year"},{"type":"table","caption":"Year-end values","columns":["Year","US federal funds rate (effective)","US 10-year Treasury yield","US inflation rate (CPI, year on year)","US 30-year fixed mortgage rate","US unemployment rate"],"rows":[["2026","3.88","4.98","3.74","7.24","4.20"],["2025","3.64","4.18","2.68","6.15","4.40"],["2024","4.33","4.58","2.89","6.85","4.10"],["2023","5.33","3.88","3.35","6.61","3.80"],["2022","4.33","3.88","6.45","6.42","3.50"],["2021","0.07","1.52","7.04","3.11","3.90"],["2020","0.09","0.93","1.36","2.67","6.70"],["2019","1.55","1.92","2.29","3.74","3.60"],["2018","2.40","2.69","1.91","4.55","3.90"],["2017","1.33","2.40","2.11","3.99","4.10"],["2016","0.55","2.45","2.07","4.32","4.70"],["2015","0.20","2.27","0.73","4.01","5.00"],["2014","0.06","2.17","0.76","3.87","5.60"],["2013","0.07","3.04","1.50","4.48","6.70"],["2012","0.09","1.78","1.74","3.35","7.90"],["2011","0.04","1.89","2.96","3.95","8.50"],["2010","0.13","3.30","1.50","4.86","9.30"],["2009","0.05","3.85","2.72","5.14","9.90"],["2008","0.14","2.25","0.09","5.10","7.30"],["2007","3.06","4.04","4.08","6.17","5.00"],["2006","5.17","4.71","2.54","6.18","4.40"],["2005","4.09","4.39","3.42","6.22","4.90"],["2004","1.97","4.24","3.26","5.81","5.40"],["2003","0.94","4.27","1.88","5.85","5.70"],["2002","1.16","3.83","2.38","5.93","6.00"]]},{"type":"heading","level":2,"text":"Relationship With Equity Markets"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Correlation of changes, not of levels. Two series that both trend for years correlate almost perfectly in levels without any relationship following from it. Values near 0 mean no discernible co-movement."},{"type":"table","caption":"Correlations","columns":["Series","Strongest relationships"],"rows":[["US federal funds rate (effective)","Nikkei 225 +0.00 n=4267 Based on daily changes"],["US 10-year Treasury yield","MSCI Europe -0.25 n=557 · MSCI World ex USA -0.23 n=557 · DAX -0.22 n=573 Based on daily changes"],["US inflation rate (CPI, year on year)","Nikkei 225 -0.05 n=199 · Bitcoin +0.00 n=108 Based on monthly changes"],["US 30-year fixed mortgage rate","Bitcoin -0.10 n=110 · Nikkei 225 +0.02 n=201 Based on monthly changes"],["US unemployment rate","Bitcoin +0.11 n=108 · Nikkei 225 +0.05 n=199 Based on monthly changes"]]},{"type":"heading","level":2,"text":"Real Interest Rate in the US"},{"type":"image","alt":"Real rate 2026-09: 0.14%"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"January 2015 September 2026"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Subtracting the inflation rate from the policy rate leaves the real interest rate: what a deposit earning the policy rate still yields after price increases. In September 2026 the effective federal funds rate stood at 3.88% and the US inflation rate (CPI) at 3.74%, putting the real rate at 0.14%. Since January 2015 it was negative in 85 of 140 months. It hit its low of -8.21% in March 2022 and its high of 2.80% in August 2024."},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Data note 2","href":"#dn-2"},{"type":"heading","level":2,"text":"Matching Calculators"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"These tools work with exactly these figures:"},{"type":"list","ordered":false,"items":[{"text":"Monte Carlo Savings Simulator A savings plan with fluctuating instead of steady returns: 2,000 simulated paths show the …","href":"https://alysly.com/tools/monte-carlo/"},{"text":"ETF Portfolio Backtester Historical performance of a mix of stock indices, gold, oil, currencies and crypto: annual …","href":"https://alysly.com/tools/backtest/"},{"text":"Correlation Matrix How closely indices, stocks, crypto, precious metals, commodities and currencies move …","href":"https://alysly.com/tools/correlations/"}]},{"type":"heading","level":2,"text":"More Rate and Economy Series"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"ECB Policy Rate Inflation in Germany and the Euro Area German Mortgage Rates German Savings Rates Government Bond Yields Labor Market: Germany and the US","links":[{"text":"ECB Policy Rate","href":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/ecb-policy-rate/"},{"text":"Inflation in Germany and the Euro Area","href":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/inflation/"},{"text":"German Mortgage Rates","href":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/mortgage-rates/"},{"text":"German Savings Rates","href":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/savings-rates/"},{"text":"Government Bond Yields","href":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/bond-yields/"},{"text":"Labor Market: Germany and the US","href":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/labor-market/"}]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Updated Oct 29, 2026"},{"type":"heading","level":2,"id":"note-legend-h","text":"Data Notes"},{"type":"paragraph","text":"How the figures on this page are produced and how current they are. All calculations run automatically and are not investment advice."},{"type":"list","ordered":true,"items":[{"id":"dn-1","text":"Official time series, taken unchanged; the change column is the gap to the previous value."},{"id":"dn-2","text":"Policy rate at month end minus the same month's inflation rate (year over year), since January 2015."}]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"Data and methodology: Alysly · Responsible for content: Alexander Bock","links":[{"text":"Alysly","href":"https://alysly.com/methodology/"},{"text":"Alexander Bock","href":"https://alysly.com/about/"}]},{"type":"paragraph","text":"View all data notes","href":"https://alysly.com/notes/"}],"structured_data":[{"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://alysly.com/#org","name":"Alysly","url":"https://alysly.com/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://alysly.com/img/icon-512.png","width":512,"height":512},"description":"Data-driven insights, transparent analysis and powerful tools for long-term investors.","email":"mail@alysly.com","contactPoint":{"@type":"ContactPoint","contactType":"customer support","email":"mail@alysly.com","availableLanguage":["de","en"]},"address":{"@type":"PostalAddress","addressLocality":"Haltern am See","postalCode":"45721","addressCountry":"DE"},"founder":{"@id":"https://alysly.com/#founder"},"sameAs":["https://www.linkedin.com/company/alyslycom/","https://www.youtube.com/@alyslycom","https://x.com/alyslycom"],"publishingPrinciples":"https://alysly.com/methodology/"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https://alysly.com/#founder","name":"Alexander Bock","jobTitle":"Founder and data analyst","url":"https://alysly.com/about/","sameAs":["https://www.linkedin.com/in/abxk/"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://alysly.com/#site","url":"https://alysly.com/","name":"Alysly","alternateName":"Alysly Investment Analysis","inLanguage":"en-US","publisher":{"@id":"https://alysly.com/#org"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://alysly.com/markets/stocks/browse/?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/us-rates/#webpage","url":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/us-rates/","name":"US Rates and Economy – Alysly","description":"Date of the next Fed meeting, plus the fed funds rate, 10-year Treasury yield, US inflation, mortgage rates and unemployment over time.","inLanguage":"en-US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https://alysly.com/#site"},"dateModified":"2026-10-29T00:00:00Z","publisher":{"@id":"https://alysly.com/#org"},"mainEntity":{"@id":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/us-rates/#entity"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://alysly.com/og.png","width":1200,"height":630}}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Rates & inflation","item":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"US Rates and Economy"}]},{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"Dataset","@id":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/us-rates/#entity","name":"US federal funds rate (effective)","description":"Date of the next Fed meeting, plus the fed funds rate, 10-year Treasury yield, US inflation, mortgage rates and unemployment over time.","url":"https://alysly.com/interest-rates/us-rates/","inLanguage":"en-US","license":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), freie Weiterverwendung mit Quellenangabe","creator":{"@type":"Organization","name":"FRED (St. Louis Fed)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF"},"publisher":{"@id":"https://alysly.com/#org"},"isAccessibleForFree":true,"temporalCoverage":"1999-01-01/2026-10-29","dateModified":"2026-10-29","measurementTechnique":"Official statistics","variableMeasured":{"@type":"PropertyValue","name":"US federal funds rate (effective)","unitText":"%","value":3.88,"measurementTechnique":"FRED (St. Louis Fed)"}}],"notice":"© 2026 Alysly.com. Not investment advice. All data without guarantee. Financial information is analyzed and presented partly with AI assistance."}